Howdy! Sun is shining today, which is good for the ol’ brain. We’ve got some split-slate Wednesday action with a few afternoon games scattered about before the main event this evening. I’ll point out that the main slate on DK starts a bit earlier than usual (6:40 PM ET), so don’t get caught up on that.
Pretty good slate, looks like. Coors Field will be back in our lives, though with temps in the 30s, it’s not exactly ideal hittin’ weather in Denver. Let us rock and/or roll.
Top MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (5/6)
- Zack Wheeler ($10,000, vs. ATH)
- Paul Skenes ($9,800, at AZ)
- Will Warren ($9,300, vs. TEX)
- Cole Ragans ($8,800, vs. CLE)
- Freddy Peralta ($8,300, at COL)
- Michael Soroka ($8,300, vs. PIT)
- Eury Perez ($8,200, vs. BAL)
- Colin Rea ($6,500, vs. CHC)
- Jack Flaherty ($6,700, vs. BOS)
Lots of good pitching out there tonight. I’ll start with Zack Wheeler, making his 3rd start of the season at home against the A’s. His walks are way up (11.6%) through 2 outings, but the Ks (32.6%) are also there. Wheeler has never had control trouble before, so I’ll ignore that. The Athletics are a pretty low-strikeout lot (18% vs. RHP) with some patience, but their power has been concentrated between 2-3 hitters, for the most part. Wheeler has a full leash, so I’m fine with playing him at $10,000 in any format.
Paul Skenes’ 2.91 SIERA tells us his 3.18 ERA is unlucky, though most pitchers would commit murder to have a 3.18 ERA. The strikeouts (29.3%) are about right, the control is normal, and he’s still keeping the ball on the ground (47%). There is nothing wrong under the hood, he’s been as good as ever despite the inconsistent results. The issue is Skenes is more of a very good DFS pitcher than an elite one, though we’re paying for elite at $9,800. I respect the Arizona lineup, especially against righties. I expect Skenes to put forth a fine effort in this one, I’d just rather play Wheeler in his matchup. I do think Skenes is a solid pivot, even in single-entry, if Wheeler’s ownership is vastly higher.
There’s some weather in New York tonight, but if we get the green light, I like Will Warren quite a bit against Texas. His improved control hasn’t cost him in the strikeouts department, and it’s good to see he’s around 30% Ks to hitters from both sides. The Rangers have some strikeouts in the order (22.6%), especially toward the bottom. It’s not a perfect spot, but I like the $500 discount from Skenes enough to call Warren my preferred SP2 overall.
Mike Soroka gets the ball on the other side of Skenes’ matchup. The Pirates have been a more potent offense vs. RHP than LHP (.165 ISO, .342 wOBA, 22% Ks), but they’re also quite groundball-prone (44.7%). Soroka has pitched well (26.5% Ks, 6.6% walks, 3.36 SIERA), and he’s only $8,300. I think the discount comes in handy if you don’t want to pay up at both SP spots.
Cole Ragans can still rack up the Ks (29.7%), but he’s also walking everyone (15.2%). His barrel rate (17.1%) is also egregiously high. His 4.21 SIERA says his 5.29 ERA is unsustainably terrible. It’s a bit concerning that he doesn’t seem to know where the ball is going, and the Guardians have been a wildly low-strikeout (13.9%) offense vs. LHP this year. It’s still not a very scary group, but we aren’t getting a discount for Ragans despite his struggles. I suppose he makes for an excellent GPP play if his ownership is low, but I Do Not Love It.
Freddy Peralta isn’t the kind of pitcher I want to play at Coors, but he is underpriced at $8,300 for his talent. The dicey control is the downside, but it’s cold in Colorado, so maybe that’s helpful to his cause. I think he’s okay, just not a priority on a slate with lots of solid plays.
Eury Perez is still a decent mix of strikeouts (24.7%) and walks (10.1%). Same as he ever was. He’s also allowing lots of loud contact (13.9% barrels). The O’s have a decently high walk rate (10.2%) against righties along with some strikeout-heavy bats. They’re also a decently powerful lineup. This is a boom/bust pitcher in a boom/bust spot. I think I slightly prefer Soroka in this range, but Perez is a decent large-field dart throw.
Speaking of dart throws, let’s get gross. Jack Flaherty has an ugly 5.90 ERA, and his 5.46 SIERA does not instill much confidence, either. HOWEVER, this is a guy whose K-rate hovered up in the 30% range over the past few years, and his current 17.7% walk rate is clearly fluky. He’s not without his control issues – 8.7% walks last year – but I expect the walks to normalize. Flaherty has also struck out nearly 29% of RHBs this year, and Boston may have 5 righties in the lineup. It is not a safe play in any way, but at $6,700, I’m highly interested.
Colin Rea? There is some slightly helpful pitching wind at Wrigley again tonight, and the Reds are decently strikeouty (23.8% vs. RHP). Rea is more of a control/groundball guy than someone who’ll rack up a buncha Ks, but $6,500 is cheap. I suppose I’d say Rea is “safer” than Flaherty, but Flaherty offers more ceiling.
SP Rankings
- Wheeler
- Warren
- Skenes
- Soroka
- Flaherty
- Peralta
- Perez
- Rea
- Ragans
Top MLB DFS Stacks (5/6)
- Mets (at Michael Lorenzen)
- Rockies (vs. Freddy Peralta)
- Yankees (vs. Nathan Eovaldi)
- Nationals (vs. Bailey Ober)
- Twins (at Miles Mikolas)
- Marlins (vs. Brandon Young)
- Tigers (vs. Sonny Gray)
- Red Sox lefties (vs. Jack Flaherty)
So, Coors Field. Even with temps in the 30s, it’s still the best hitting environment on the slate. While dongs may be a little less frequent as a result, it’s not like Coors Field is only good for home runs. It has the biggest outfield in the league, so it’s the best park for hits in general. Doubles, triples, things of that nature.
The Mets should be the chalk of the slate against the weaker pitcher in this game, Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen’s numbers on the season are decent vs. RHBs, but lefties have torn him to shreds (.333 ISO, 16.4% barrels, .497 wOBA). Juan Soto is really the only standout left-handed hitter in the lineup these days, but he’s very clearly the slate’s top overall bat. MJ Melendez is next on the list, followed by Brett Baty and Carson Benge. I’d then hunt for power with Mark Vientos, Bo Bichette, and Francisco Alvarez from the right side. It’s a good stack, obviously, I’d probably just rather one-off Soto than fully stack them if they’re mega chalk.
The Rockies are more of a boom/bust stack against a more talented pitcher, but Peralta isn’t without his warts. His issues are mostly related to control, though lefties (.163 ISO) have flashed some power against him. I like Mickey Moniak just about as much as I like Soto, while TJ Rumfield and Troy Johnston have solid numbers from the left side. I’ll always make Hunter Goodman a priority in Colorado stacks regardless of pitcher handedness.
Nathan Eovaldi is a good pitcher, but he’s really struggled against lefties, and the Yankees always profile excellently vs. right-handed pitching. They were even fairly chalky last night against Jacob deGrom, so I’d guess we’ll see some ownership here again. LHBs have smoked Eovaldi (12% barrels, .260 ISO), so I’m starting with Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, and Jazz Chisholm while auto-jamming Aaron Judge if salary allows.
The Twins-Nats game has some shootout potential with a couple of wack pitchers on the mound. Miles Mikolas is just horrendous against everyone now. The Twins’ lineup is junky, but Mikolas’ lack of ability puts everyone in play. Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell, Kody Clemens, and Royce Lewis all have double-digit barrel rates vs. RHP. Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach are very cheap with power.
The Twins will be higher-owned than the Nationals, but Washington gets a good matchup of their own against Bailey Ober, a man who forgot how to pitch starting last season. LHBs (.206 ISO, 11.3% barrels) are the headliners here for the Nats – James Wood and CJ Abrams. The rest of this lineup is in utter shambles, so I suppose I’d either just play those two or round out the mini-stack with Curtis Mead or Daylen Lile.
Stacking the Marlins always requires some fortitude, but Brandon Young is one of the slate’s more attackable pitchers. He’s another guy getting rekt (.276 ISO, 14.8% barrels, .365 wOBA) by left-handed bats. Liam Hicks, Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee, and Owen Caissie are decent lefty bats. The generically-named Joe Mack is a power-hitting catcher rated as one of Miami’s top prospects, so he makes the cut, as well.
Sonny Gray hasn’t pitched particularly well this year, and he’s old. Maybe he’s washed? I don’t mind hunting for power with Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, or Spencer Torkelson. Flaherty’s issues with LHBs are pronounced, so a couple of Boston lefties – Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu – are solid one-offs.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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