Thursday Night Football kicks off week 4 in the NFL, with a pretty ugly showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. Both teams are impossibly 2-1 and one of them will exit the game at 3-1. What a time to be alive.
Despite the potential theatrics, this game has a low total (38.5), so it may not be super promising in the fantasy realm. You can still profit off of it if you piece together the right lineup at DraftKings, however. Join me as I look at the top Captain plays, some GPP picks, and my favorite values. Let’s build!
Top NFL DFS Showdown Captain Picks for TNF
These are the best plays in terms of projection, floor, ceiling, and expected ownership. They should be relatively popular or full-blown chalk.
- Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers – Safest play on the board with Rico Dowdle likely out. Browns are bottom 10 in rush yards allowed per game to RBs and Pittsburgh is favored.
- Aaron Rodgers, QB, Steelers – Decent CPT pick based on TD equity and week 3 performance, but curbed by lack of rushing upside.
- Deshaun Watson, QB, Browns – Game flow could benefit him, but matchup stinks on paper.
- Quinshon Judkins, RB, Browns – Steelers have given up production to RBs. Home game on short week benefits him.
- DK Metcalf, WR, Steelers – Assuming he isn’t shadowed by Denzel Ward, his game-breaking upside and target share keeps him in play.
Preferred Captains: Warren or DK
Warren is the safe play in terms of role, Vegas lean, and matchup. You could make a case for anyone else here depending on how you see this game playing out. I think the Steelers win, and if Rodgers has a big game I bet DK has something to do with it. If Ward doesn’t shadow him, he could spring enough big plays (and scores) at low ownership to break the slate.
Best GPP Captain Plays for TNF
Looking for some off the wall Captain picks that not everyone will be on? Here are a few that I like that shouldn’t sniff the ownership of the guys above.
- Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Browns – Crushed last week and is getting more involved. Tough matchup, but he won’t be owned and game flow could help him.
- KC Concepcion, WR, Browns – The role and talent are there. Bad matchup, but playing from behind could lead to his biggest outing of the year.
- Pat Freiermuth, TE, Steelers – Browns aren’t elite against TEs and he’s cheap for his role.
- Denzel Boston, WR, Browns – Hyper efficient big play maestro. Tough spot but he could stay hot.
Favorite GPP Captain: KC Concepcion
I don’t like the matchup but he’s an explosive player who has a role. Eventually he’s going to make some big plays and with Cleveland likely playing from behind, I think game flow benefits him greatly. I’m betting on talent.
Best TNF DFS Value Picks
Finding inexpensive players with legitimate paths to touches and targets is one of the easiest ways to fit multiple stars into a Showdown lineup. Here are my favorite NFL DFS Showdown values for Thursday Night Football.
- Roman Wilson, WR, Steelers – Wilson has a solid role and looked great last week. Positive matchup and he’s cheap.
- Rahiem Sanders, RB, Browns – Browns could be playing from behind, which could open up his pass-catching role.
- Isaiah Bond, WR, Browns – Dart throw and cheap. We know he’s a burner who can make big plays, but volume and matchup aren’t ideal.
- Robert Tonyan, TE, Steelers – Will not play much, but he’s a Rodgers’ favorite and very cheap.
Showdowns don’t need cores, but you should still have a set of 3-4 plays you have in most of your lineups. For this slate, it’s the following:
- Jaylen Warren
- Quinshon Judkins
- Aaron Rodgers
Need more help? Try out our DFS lineup optimizer and see what lineups look good for Sunday Night Football this week.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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