Hello! September is upon us, which must mean fall is a-comin’. It’ll be 90 degrees where I am today, but 90 degrees is pretty modest compared to how it’s been lately, so I guess I’ll take it. I’m also in the process of moving, which is The Beating Of A Lifetime. If you can stand it, I recommend against moving, ever.
Anywho, nobody is here to read about my personal plight. We’ve got a relatively small 9-game slate on tap for Tuesday. Lots of turbo-timed games, things of that nature. The pitching pool looks a little thin, which should lead to some obvious chalk once again, but not much we can do about that. We’ve also got the Orioles in Coors again after their breathtaking 2-1 win last night, so that’ll be fun.
Let’s talk about The Stuff.
MLB DFS Pitcher Plays for 9/1
- Jesus Luzardo ($10,500, at DBax)
- Gerrit Cole ($9,500, at Angels)
- MacKenzie Gore ($8,800, vs. A’s)
- Sean Burke ($8,500, at Astros)
- Grayson Rodriguez ($7,000, vs. Yankees)
- Ronel Blanco ($6,000, vs. White Sox)
Well, I guess that’s it. Jesus Luzardo is the headliner at $10,500. Usually when there’s a high-priced ace who’s clearly the most talented pitcher on the board, I’m willing to concede that while he may not be a must-play, he’s still a good bet to finish with the most fantasy points among pitchers. With Luzardo against Arizona, I don’t really think that applies, and we’re getting no discount here.
The skills (30.3% Ks, 7.5% walks, 3.07 SIERA) are not the problem. The issue is the DBax (17.3%) are one of the lowest-strikeout lineups in the league against lefties. They’ve also been respectable overall (.172 ISO, .343 wOBA), so it could be tough for Luzardo to offset any damage he allows by racking up a bunch of strikeouts. If you want to play Luzardo, fine. I won’t be fading him entirely, but I also won’t be going out of my way to jam him in.
Gerrit Cole seems like a pretty good alternative for a full $1,000 less. He’s on the road in Anaheim. Things went poorly for ElmRod in this spot last night, but that’s because he sucks. Cole (26.1% Ks, 5.2% walks, 3.42 SIERA) isn’t quite what he was a few years ago with Houston, but he has been better than I expected him to be post-TJ. Plus, we love to pick on the Angels and their 25.1% strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching. Much of the power they had in the lineup earlier of the year is also gone (.155 ISO, .307 wOBA). The issue is Cole is going to be extremely chalky here as a result, but that’s kinda the nature of this slate.
Going to pretend Troy Melton still doesn’t exist and skip right down to MacKenzie Gore at $8,800 at home against the A’s. It feels like Gore is chalk every time he takes the mound, probably because he keeps running into easy matchups. Over his last 5 starts, he’s faced the White Sox, Angels (twice), Giants, and A’s. Things have gone well, for the most part, and tonight he’ll get to face the A’s yet again. Gore (25.8% Ks, 8.6% walks) is a decent source of strikeouts. The same can be said of this version of the A’s (24.7% vs. LHP), and they’re not hitting for much power (.159 ISO).
Gore’s skill set isn’t as trustworthy as some of the other pitchers on the slate, but $8,800 is still arguably a discount. The A’s have a 2.99 total in this one.
Sean Burke? Things have gone well for him this season (26.3% Ks, 8.2% walks, 3.66 SIERA), though he’s looked more wobbly over the last month (19.3% Ks, 11.9% walks). The Astros are not a particularly favorable matchup (.193 ISO, .338 wOBA, 20.3% Ks vs. RHP). Burke’s better numbers against righties give me some faith he can bounce back a little, and $8,500 is fair enough. As of now, I’m getting a lot of him, and I do not love it.
Grayson Rodriguez will oppose Cole and the Yankees at home. He was an abject disaster at the beginning of the season after coming back from injury, but we’ve seen signs of the old G-Rod in his more recent outings. It’s reasonable to expect his improvement to continue, especially since the Angels fired Mike Maddux and the entire pitching coaching staff for not using advanced data. Since that happened, the Angels’ entire pitching staff has improved, Rodriguez included.
Over the last month, G-Rod has a 25.4% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate, .089 ISO, .272 wOBA, and 52.1% groundball rate. Good stuff everywhere. We know the Yankees are not a breezy matchup (.203 ISO, .330 wOBA), but the bottom of the order is rather weak and strikeout-prone. Things can go south for Rodriguez if his control issues pop back up, but he’s also just $7,000 on a weak pitching slate. In Rod We Trust.
The last guy worth a shout is Ronel Blanco at home against the White Sox. It’s a pure price play at $6,000, and not a remotely safe one. Blanco has been Rather Poor (19.8% Ks, 11.9% walks, 4.85 SIERA), though not quite as atrocious as the 7.71 ERA might lead you to believe. Over the last month, his walk rate is about 4% higher than his strikeout rate against lefties, and his strikeout rate is just 8.7%. It’s all pretty bad, but he does have a history of being a semi-respectable starter. It’s whatever. I won’t recommend a hard pro-Blanco stance on this slate, but I’ll probably have low-double-digit exposure.
SP Rankings
- Gore
- Burke
- Cole
- Rodriguez
- Luzardo
- Blanco
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Tuesday
- Marlins (at Randy Dobnak)
- Royals (vs. Tyler Phillips)
- Orioles (at Gabriel Hughes)
- Dodgers (vs. Michael McGreevy)
- Brewers (at Matthew Boyd)
- Cubs (vs. Robert Gasser)
- Rockies (vs. Kyle Bradish)
- Phillies (at Eduardo Rodriguez)
- Carinals (at Eric Lauer)
Coors is on this slate, but the best hitting environment may be in Kansas City, where it’ll be around 100 degrees when the game starts. Pretty sweltering! Can’t imagine people will pay American dollars to watch the Marlins play the Royals while they roast in the stands, but I guess at least some will do that.
Randy Dobnak has a 1.92 ERA for Kansas City, but nothing about that is real. He’s sporting a 15.4% strikeout rate next to a 9.5% walk rate, while his 4.67 SIERA paints a more accurate picture. Dobnak has, admittedly, done a good job of dodging barrels (3.6%) and keeping the ball on the ground (52.8%), which has helped him limit the damage. He has also managed to strand nearly 90% of baserunners, which, lol. C’mon man.
Do I have faith that he will finally meet The Regression Monster with the Marlins in town? Not really, but I’ll still play them and hope. Dobnak has shown a bit more vulnerability against LHBs (.361 wOBA over the last month). I quite like Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee, Griffin Conine, Joe Mack, and Owen Caissie from the left side. Strikeouts are a problem for Heriberto Hernandez – but that shouldn’t be an issue in this matchup – and he has a stellar 12.9% barrel rate vs. RHP when he does make contact. I’m gonna have an embarrassing amount of exposure to Miami on this slate. Otto Lopez and Javier Sanoja make the cut, too. Just All the Marlins, I guess.
Kansas City has a 4.87 total of their own against the weak Tyler Phillips. He has a slightly higher K-rate than Dobnak (18.9%) and a slightly lower groundball rate (46.4%), while hitters from both sides have a barrel rate north of 8% against him. Phillips doesn’t have a particularly notable platoon split, so I’m happy to fire up anyone on the Royals’ side of this one. Can you guess which team has scored the 4th-most runs over the last 2 weeks? That’s right, it’s the Royals.
Carter Jensen, Bobby Witt Jr., Jac Caglianone, Salvador Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino all have barrel rates of at least 8.9% vs. RHP. In a perfect world, those are the 5 I’m stacking together. We live in an imperfect world, however, as Perez and Pasquantino are both 1B-only on DraftKings. Isaac Collins ($3,000) and Josh Rojas ($2,200) nice and cheap, which makes them perfectly fine inclusions.
The highest run total of the slate belongs to the Orioles (5.95) as they take on Gabriel Hughes in Colorado. Hughes’ 4.72 SIERA is certainly better than his 6.61 ERA, but an 18% strikeout rate simply won’t do. He’s had. more trouble with RHBs early in his career, though I don’t really think he’s going to be a reverse-splits righty in the long run. We’re getting no discounts on guys like Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson, but they’re fine if you can find a way to get to them, especially with guys like Jackson Holliday, Dylan Beavers, Coby Mayo, and Colton Cowser coming at relative discounts. This is not a great offense, and I have much more conviction with the MIA/KC game on this slate.
It appears Kyle Bradish is due to pitch after he was initially slated to go last night. Lefties (.170 ISO, .339 wOBA) have done more damage against him. Jake McCarthy, Cole Carrigg, Mickey Moniak, Zac Veen, and TJ Rumfield is a solid quintet of LHBs likely to crack the Colorado order tonight, while you can always fire up Hunter Goodman against anybody. Think I like this more than I like Baltimore.
The Dodgers are back in our lives, and they’ll face Michael McGreevy at home. Collectively, the Dodgers have a .140 ISO and a .294 wOBA over the last month vs. RHP, which is insane for a team with this much talent. I assume they will remember they’re better than this eventually, and McGreevy isn’t a scary pitcher, especially against LHBs. Doesn’t feel great outside of Shohei Ohtani, but you can go right back to the well with Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Tommy Edman, and Kyle Tucker.
Eduardo Rodriguez has gotten wildly lucky all year. Maybe he’s just One Of Those Lucky Guys Who Will Never Run Into Regression. Or maybe not. The Phillies aren’t as exciting against a lefty, but E-Rod’s history of reverse splits makes Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper interesting contrarian plays.
The Cubs hit 18 homers last night against the Brewers, and they’ll face another lefty – Robert Gasser – tonight, albeit with more modest winds at their backs. Chicago (.204 ISO, .372 wOBA) has some of the best numbers in the league collectively against lefties, so I guess they’re stackable again, especially against a guy who’s had some power issues vs. RHBs. Decent chance they see more ownership after last night’s exploits, though.
Matthew Boyd has allowed an 11.6% barrel rate and .196 ISO on the other side of that one. Andrew Vaughn, Jackson Chourio, and Gary Sanchez is a solid little 3-man for Milwaukee.
Eric Lauer has pitched over his head since arriving in LA, and the Cardinals have a rather unexciting 3.75 total tonight. This offense has some hitters who have fared quite well vs. LHP – namely Jordan Walker and Jose Fermin – while Joshua Baez, Ramon Urias, and Thomas Saggese have decent numbers in smaller samples. Prefer STL as a mini.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
Want more winning DFS plays like this? Get our daily core plays, leverage spots, and strategy sent straight to your inbox.
Leave a Reply