Good day. Today is May Day. It is also Labor Day in South America. We don’t really celebrate May Day in the United States because we’re only allowed 4 holidays a year, so here we are, working on both May Day and South American Labor Day. Sucks!
I guess we can talk about baseball. Coors Field is back in our lives with the Braves in town for the weekend as the visitors, so that’ll be the chalk hitting spot, without a doubt. Let’s dive in and see if there’s anything else worth targeting.
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Off we go.
Top MLB DFS Pitchers for 5/1
- Cole Ragans ($8,300, at SEA)
- Will Warren ($8,900, vs. BAL)
- Bryan Woo ($9,000, vs. KC)
- Emmet Sheehan ($8,700, at STL)
- Zack Wheeler ($9,500, at MIA)
- Eury Perez ($8,000, vs. PHI)
- Mike Burrows ($7,000, at BOS)
- Joey Cantillo ($7,400, at ATH)
- Shane McClanahan ($8,200, vs. SF)
Lots of pitchers on this slate, though it’s not like any of them stand out as obvious, can’t-miss aces. Maybe that’s a good thing, as aces have been pitching like shit for a while now. Still doesn’t make me feel great about rolling the dice on some of these guys, but we’re all dealing with the same pool.
Cole Ragans is going to be the chalk pitcher of the slate. Not only does he get a park boost going into Seattle, he’s also just clearly underpriced for his talent at $8,300. Ragans is another ace who’s pitched like shit for much of the year, though he did turn in an 11-K gem against the Angels in his last outing. Overall, the strikeout stuff is solid (28.4%) with room for growth. His walk (15.5%) and barrel rates (17.2%) are comically high, and this Seattle lineup (.199 ISO, 10.6% barrels vs. LHP) brings some thump.
It’s just such a mispricing that I’m fine with playing Ragans, even into substantial ownership. The ballpark helps to mute the risk and largely offsets the red flags.
So, who do you pair him with? Zack Wheeler and Bryan Woo are the next-most-expensive options at $9,500 and $9,000, respectively. Wheeler pitched decently in his season debut against the Braves last week, while Woo is generally much better in his pitcher’s haven of a home stadium. The Marlins are #pesky, but the bottom of the lineup does have some Ks. Marlins Park is also pitcher-friendly. I think Wheeler is a decent play, I just don’t really think we need to pay all the way up.
Woo gets to face a Royals offense that has struggled mightily out of the gates, but he hasn’t exactly been tearing it up, either. His 19.1% strikeout rate is a bit concerning, and his matchup is similar to Wheeler’s. I don’t see any red flags under the hood with Woo, so I assume he’ll be decent here. I prefer Woo to Wheeler, officially, thanks in part to the $500 discount.
Will Warren checks in at $100 less than Woo at home against Baltimore. Warren had major issues against lefties last year, but those issues have not popped up yet this season. He’s actually whiffing LHBs (31.2%) at a higher clip than RHBs (26.2%), albeit in a smallish sample. Lefties are still barreling him up (12.8%), and the O’s can those 5 left-handed hitters his way. I think this is a good offense, but I’m kinda buying what I’m seeing from this version of Warren enough to prefer him to Woo and Wheeler among the high-end options. As of now, he’s my second-highest-exposed pitcher, trailing only Ragans.
Emmet Sheehan ($8,700) gets a park upgrade going into St. Louis. Sheehan is another talented pitcher who’s hit some bumps early in the season, but the Ks seem to be ticking back in the right direction (25.5% overall). LHBs have ripped him to shreds, while he’s fared well against same-handed bats. This Cardinals lineup has been much more powerful (.181 ISO, .332 wOBA vs. RHP) than I expected coming into the season, but the bottom half of the order is also laden with Ks. It’s a bit of a boom/bust spot, but I’m a believer in Sheehan more than I’m a believer in the Cardinals. I think he’s another terrific option that I prefer to Wheeler, given the discount.
It’s always Eury Perez vs. himself more than it is Eury Perez. vs the opposing lineup. Strikeouts have never been a problem, but walks have. He’s also yielding lots of loud contact (14.9% barrels) early on. The Phillies have been prtetty disappointing offensively, but there’s enough talent here to make me think they’re coming around eventually. It’s also worth noting the only remotely patient hitters are Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, so it’s not a terrible spot for Perez, especially at home. Plus, he’s $8,000. I’d rank him behind every other pitcher I’ve named so far, but I think he’s still playable, more so in large-field contests.
We can save a little more with Mike Burrows ($7,000) at Fenway or Joey Cantillo ($7,400) in Sacramento. I think we can chalk some of Burrows’ middling numbers to bad luck (.378 BABIP). He’s been a legit ace against righties (29.7% Ks, 2.9% barrels) with some wack numbers vs. opposite-handed bats (17.7% Ks, 11.4% walks, 10.7% barrels). The top of the Boston lineup is very left-handed, albeit with plenty of Ks mixed in (24.2%). Boston, like Philly, just hasn’t hit as well as they should. Fenway is hitter-friendly, so I like both sides of this one. I’ll have a sprinkling of the cheap Burrows in large-field, while Boston is also one of the slate’s better stacks against him and that trash-ass Houston bullpen.
Cantillo takes a park downgrade going into SAC, but the A’s have really sucked against LHP this season (.110 ISO, .278 wOBA, 28.7% Ks). Shea Langeliers and Darell Hernaiz are the only bats who’ve hit for any power against southpaws so far, while Cantillo (27.2%) has some strikeout ability. He also has dangerously mediocre power numbers vs. RHBs. Again, though, beyond Langeliers and Brent Rooker, the A’s don’t have a lot of righty power to worry about. He’s a decent play, just not a priority with so many stronger options in the $8,000-$9,000 range.
SP Rankings
- Ragans
- Warren
- Woo
- Sheehan
- Wheeler
- Perez
- Cantillo
- Burrows
Top Stacks for 5/1
- Braves (at Jose Quintana)
- Mets (Walbert Urena)
- Red Sox (vs. Mike Burrows)
- Guardians (at JT Ginn)
- Yankees (vs. Cade Povich)
- Astros (at Jake Bennett)
- Dodgers (at Matt Liberatore)
As always, what you do with the visitor in Coors is the first decision point. After a couple of lean years, it seems like the Braves are back to Being Good. Jose Quintana has been a serviceable major-league starter for quite a while, but he’s old, likely washed up, and should not be pitching baseball games in Colorado for a living. He’s walked more than twice as many righties as he’s struck out so far in Rockies pinstripes. His barrel rate (11.3%) is also higher than his overall K-rate (11%). It’s not what you want. Unless you’re the opponent.
The results haven’t been there for Ronald Acuna Jr., but he is hitting the ball hard against LHP (12% barrels). Matt Olson (11.4%) is the only other Brave with a double-digit barrel rate vs. LHP on the year. I’ll still trust the long-term numbers for Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley and vault them near the top of the stacking wish list, while Drake Baldwin has been solid in lefty-lefty matchups. The bottom of Atlanta’s order is quite lacking, but you can save salary with guys like Jorge Mateo, Jonah Heim, and Eli White.
The Mets get a park boost of their own going into Anaheim to face Walbert Urena. The Mets are horrible, but Urena isn’t some mega-prospect or anything. Lots of velocity, but he doesn’t really know where it’s going. His walk rate (15%) is almost as high as his average strikeout rate (21.7%), and the Halos have a weak bullpen behind him. Urena projects for a reverse right-handed split, but I’m not too concerned with handedness here. I think Juan Soto is right up there among the slate’s top overall options, while I’d prioritize the power RHBs (Alvarez, Vientos) next, followed by cheaps like MJ Melendez and Ronny Mauricio. It’s a pretty affordable stack once you get past Soto, so that’s cool.
I mentioned Burrows’ struggles – especially with LHBs – and that Boston has plenty of those. Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, and Wilyer Abreu are the headliners from that side, while you can save some salary with Carlos Narvaez (R) and Marcelo Mayer. No issue with Willson Contreras or Trevor Story in stacks, as Fenway is better for righty power in the first place. Plus, that Astros bullpen is doo-doo.
Just about any offense in Sacramento is viable. Even Cleveland. JT Ginn (.250 ISO, .321 wOBA, 8.1% barrels) continues to have some issues with lefties. The Guardians have 9 left-handed hitters in the projected lineup. Jose Ramirez, Chase DeLauter, and Kyle Manzardo are the best. Travis Bazzana, Daniel Schneemann, and Angel Martinez next up. I learned Schneemann is German for “snowman,” which is crazy. They’re naming people Snowman over there with a straight face.
The Yankees just don’t look as good against lefties, especially without Giancarlo Stanton. Aaron Judge is fabulous, while Amed Rosario could lead off here. Otherwise…meh? Paul Goldschmidt, Ben Rice, and Jose Caballero round things out, but I’m not in love with this.
I suppose you can say the same of the Dodgers, as most of their better bats are left-handed for a matchup against a lefty, Matt Liberatore. Will Smith ($3,800) is just wildly cheap, and I assume Teoscar Hernandez will come around eventually. Andy Pages, Miguel Rojas, Max Muncy, Shohei Ohtani, and Kyle Tucker all have solid numbers vs. LHP on the year, as well. I’m not that interested in Freddie Freeman, but I can get behind the rest of it, especially at low ownership. I prefer LA to NYY overall.
Jake Bennett is one of the Red Sox’ better prospects, and he’ll have to deal with Yordan Alvarez and the sea of HOU RHBs in his MLB debut. Bennett hasn’t been a huge strikeout guy at the lower levels, but he’s got good control and some groundball ability. The Astros profile pretty well against lefties. I’d prioritize Christian Walker, Carlos Correa, and Alvarez here, while Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith, and Jose Altuve are fine for full stacks.
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