It’s Friday, so Saturday is on the horiz’. The NFL’s Divisional Round gets underway with a couple of games. You can always play the bigger 4-game slate spanning both Saturday and Sunday, but NFL DFS sites have smaller single-day slates you can play if you’re the impatient type.
Prize pools for Saturday-only look decent enough, so I guess we should fire up some #content for it. The Broncos will host the Bills in the early game, while the 49ers will visit the Seahawks in the season’s third matchup between the old NFC West rivals. Denver is favored in the opener by a point-and-a-half, while the ‘Hawks are touchdown favorites over the visiting Niners.
I’ll go position-by-position to break this thing down.
Quarterback
Interesting position, this. We have Josh Allen ($7,100) coming in as the highest-priced option by a huge margin, as each of the other 3 QBs – Sam Darnold, Brock Purdy, and Bo Nix – are all between $5,400 and $5,800 on DK. Allen is the one with the most nuclear ceiling, but a road date with Denver is no easy task.
As usual, if you’re playing Allen, it’s generally best to play him naked. The Bills’ receiver room is in absolute shambles, while the tight end situation isn’t much better. I never have any issue with playing Allen unstacked – or alongside James Cook. Playing Allen + Cook may not seem optimal, but you’re also potentially getting access to 100% of Buffalo’s TDs. I expect Khalil Shakir to be the popular stacking partner with Allen after he went off for 12 catches (12 targets) last week in a much softer matchup with Jacksonville. Because I think Shakir’s ownership will be largely tied to Allen’s, I’d rather play either of them individually instead of pairing them.
The other 3 project very similarly, and you can make a case for getting to any of them. The QB who should have the most pass-heavy game script would be Purdy, given the Niners’ underdog status here. Purdy gives you a little rushing upside, and he comes with the benefit of cheap stacking partners in Jauan Jennings ($5,400), Jake Tonges ($3,400), and, maybe, Ricky Pearsall ($4,800). The matchup stinks, but it’s a volume play.
Nix also brings a rushing element, and most Nix lineups are likely to include Courtland Sutton ($5,900) with a dusting of cheap Pat Bryant ($3,900), Evan Engram ($3,500), or Troy Franklin ($4,900). Buffalo has been a significantly better pass defense than run defense this season, so we’re going to see heavy, heavy chalk on RJ Harvey. Playing a Denver passing stack and fading Harvey is a clear leverage avenue.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be one of the most popular individual pieces, so I don’t think his ownership will be tied that heavily to that of Darnold. The 49ers’ defense is pretty clearly the weakest unit on the slate, and they’ve given it up both on the ground and through the air. If I am playing Darnold, I’d like to take a more aggressive approach than simply +1ing him with JSN. Any Darnold lineup I play will be at least a double with Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner, or, to a lesser extent, Rashid Shaheed.
If I’m playing one lineup on this slate, it is likely a Purdy stack.
Running Back
As mentioned, the Bills’ leaky run defense means massive ownership for Denver’s RJ Harvey. He’s cheap ($6,200) and Denver should be looking to control the clock and exploit Buffalo’s primary defensive weakness. The ownership is really the only stumbling block, and fading him is one easy way to give yourself a unique build.
Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) will be co-chalk. It’s a volume play, not a matchup one. McCaffrey simply projects vastly better than any other RB on the board, and ne’s narrowly ahead of JSN as the slate’s top-projected overall option. At some point, you need raw points. While the Seahawks have done an excellent job of limiting C-Mac on the ground in two matchups – 30 carries, 92 yards, 0 TD – he’s still done damage through the air – 15 catches, 17 targets, 107 yards. I’m much more inclined to fade Harvey than McCaffrey, but there’s obviously still a path to failure for C-Mac if you have the #stones to pull the fade.
I don’t think James Cook goes overlooked, but he’ll clearly come in third among RBs in terms of popularity. The Broncos’ defense is tough in every regard, and Cook’s relative lack of involvement in the pass game gives him a substantially lower floor than McCaffrey, though we are getting a $1,500 discount.
As of now, my favorite way to build is to pair McCaffrey with Cook and to fade Harvey.
The only other RBs pulling ownership are the Seahawks’ Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, who project similarly with a $200 salary discrepancy on DK. Walker had the edge for most of the season, but Charbonnet has now out-snapped him in 4 consecutive games. Charbs has also found paydirt 4 times in the last 3 games with some pass-game involvement. Early ownership has Walker coming in more popular, but I’m skeptical. As of now, I have a little more faith in Charbonnet, but this has been a messy situation all year.
Wide Receiver
Like McCaffrey at RB, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to be the most popular WR on the slate. We’re probably looking at 80% ownership on a 2-gamer. You’ll have more than enough salary to play them together, and that’s just what I’m inclined to do. Obviously, fading one or both of them is a way to get different, but it’s also a way to probably get yourself killed out there.
In terms of projected ownership, the next WRs on the board are Shakir, Sutton, Pearsall, Jennings, and Kupp. Because I like a Purdy stack the most, I’m more inclined to get to guys like Jennings and Pearsall than Sutton or Shakir. Purdy triples + McCaffrey make a lot of sense to me, especially if Pearsall is available.
With the DEN WRs, you’re playing a couple of them + Nix as a way to leverage the Harvey chalk. With Darnold, as mentioned, I’m playing a minimum of 2 pass-catchers with him. There are a variety of ways to play Purdy. Pairing him with C-Mac is obvious, while I’m likely a minimum-2 of Jennings/Pearsall/Tonges in those lineups. I prefer Allen by himself. If I am playing Allen + Shakir, I’d like to try to find an edge by adding another shaky Bills pass-catcher to the mix – Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Brandin Cooks, and Keon Coleman are how I’d rank the non-Shakirs.
Tight End
This position blows extra-hard on this slate. My favorite of the lot is Jake Tonges, who’s typically taken on a pretty sizable role whenever George Kittle has been sidelined. Tonges is cheap, reliable, and the 49ers’ pass volume should be there in this one, assuming they fall behind early.
My next favorite is Barner in my Darnold doubles, as mentioned. Kincaid, Engram, and Knox are the only other TEs likely to crack my player pool. If you’re playing larger-field, perhaps you can add Jackson Hawes and hope he’s the Bills TE who randomly barrels into the end zone.
Taylor Smith been a profitable DFS player for years, turning his passion for fantasy sports into both consistent results and quality content. Since 2018, he’s created fantasy analysis and strategy pieces for several outlets, most notably RotoGrinders and FantasyLabs, where he’s covered everything from daily picks to advanced DFS theories.
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