Howdy, folks. It’s Tuesday, and the Dodgers are still in Colorado after piling up 11 runs last night. LA has the highest implied run total again tonight at a nice 6.69, which is actually slightly lower than the 7-total they had yesterday. There are a few more teams with implied run totals of around 5 tonight, though, including the Cubs, Astros, and Royals.
Good pitching looks hard to come by on this one, so things may be tilted toward the bats. Let us dive in.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Tuesday
- Kyle Harrison ($10,000, vs. Mariners)
- Bryce Miller ($9,500, at Brewers)
- Kevin Gausman ($9,000, vs. White Sox)
- Ranger Suarez ($8,700, vs. DBax)
- Robbie Ray ($8,500, at Mets)
- Cristian Javier ($7,500, vs. Angels)
- Cal Quantrill ($7,000, vs. Nationals)
- Jackson Kent ($6,800, at Rangers)
- Jack Perkins ($6,300, at Royals)
We know Aces Love To Pitch Like Shit, so maybe it’s good that we have a slate with approximately zero aces on it. The closest we have to one is Kyle Harrison, who will pitch at home against Seattle. It was good to see Harrison get up to 90 pitches in his last outing after being held at 69 in his return from the IL. It was not nice to see him get absolutely destroyed by the Padres in that game, but, as we know, ALTPLS.
For the year, Harrison has a 29.7% K-rate, 6.3% walk rate, and a 3.10 SIERA. The Brewers grow capable pitchers on trees, so it’s not a huge surprise to see Harrison finally break out in his first year in Milwaukee. The Mariners put some runs on the board over the weekend in Houston, but this has still been a wildly disappointing offense overall this season. Against lefties, they’re sporting a collective .152 ISO, .320 wOBA, and 22.1% strikeout rate. I still believe in the talent the Mariners have, but if I were betting on which pitcher will score the most fantasy points tonight, I’d bet on Harrison. Does that make him a must at $10,000? It most certainly does not.
Harrison will be opposed by Bryce Miller. Miller is another former top prospect who got off to a super hot start, but he’s come crashing back down to earth over the last month. His 25.4% strikeout rate for the season looks nice, but a 14.4% clip over the last month Simply Will Not Do. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle. Miller is really just the flyball version of George Kirby. The strikeouts should be around average, and, paired with excellent control, he can be effective. The higher flyball rate will lead to some dongs.
The Brewers (23% Ks, .163 ISO, .332 wOBA) aren’t a very imposing lineup. I’m still not geeked to pay $9,500 for Miller given his weak run of form, even if he’s not a terrible play relative to the slate.
Kevin Gausman is still Kevin Gausman, even if he’s now wearing a Cubs uniform. It looks like we have some hitter-friendly winds at Wrigley tonight, yet the White Sox still only have a 3.89 run total here against Gausman. He’s similar to Miller, with slightly above-average strikeouts (23.5%) to go along with good control and a 3.82 SIERA. We know the White Sox will throw lots of power at him (.195 ISO), but they’ll also do some striking out (23% vs. RHP). I don’t have much conviction here. It’s easy to see how things may go south for Gausman, but I’m also having a hard time loving anything else on the pitching side tonight. I’ll probably play him more than I should.
Ranger Suarez‘s matchup is essentially the opposite. The DBax are extremely light on power (.147 ISO vs. LHP), but they’re also one of the lowest-strikeout offenses in baseball against southpaws (16.8%). Suarez’s K-rate is up this season (24.7%), and the extra Ks have come at the expense of some groundballs. Fenway is a hitter-friendly park, but there’s a pretty major absence of talent in this lineup with Ketel Marte and Nolan Arenado out of the mix. While I doubt Suarez will go out there and put up some sort of incredible strikeout number, this is also a spot where he should enjoy some easy innings, and, potentially, pitch deep into the game with minimal damage allowed. He’s probably not getting far past 90 pitches, but I have no issues with Suarez here.
Robbie Ray has fallen off pretty sharply this year. One of the best strikeout pitchers of all-time has just a 20.4% K-rate this year, while the old control issues (11.7% walks) have popped back up. Maybe there are a few extra Ks in order thanks to the matchup with the Mets (23% Ks vs. LHP), but Ray should probably not be $8,500. Unfortunately, he is $8,500, and I’d rather just play Suarez or Gausman in this range.
We love to pick on the Angels, and Cristian Javier is the lucky man tasked with facing them tonight. The Halos continue to strike out heavily (23.9%) vs. RHP, and they’re not even all that powerful anymore (.155 ISO, .316 wOBA). The problem? Javier hasn’t shown any semblance of strikeout stuff since 2022, which was many years ago now. He’s down at just 16.8% Ks so far this season with a walk rate pushing 11%. The decent 11.7% swinging strike rate tells me he’s been a little unlucky, and he did absolutely demolish these very Angels in a long relief outing just a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately, I don’t think that matters at all. I get that the matchup is a good one, but I have zero faith in this guy, especially if this matchup leads to some ownership.
Jackson Kent and Cal Quantrill will square off in a must-see game in Arlington. Quantrill simply isn’t very good, but we can really say the same of this Washington lineup now that James Wood is on the IL and Luis Garcia is a member of the Yankees. What’s left has a collective .160 ISO and .308 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching. They don’t strike out much (19.2%), and Quantrill isn’t a strikeout pitcher (16.4%), but he’s okay, and I’m not too concerned with the matchup.
Kent is making his 2nd MLB start after a so-so outing last week against the Cubs. Kent was regularly a high-strikeout pitcher at the lower levels, and I don’t think the control problems he showed in his debut are necessarily real. It is also worth noting that the Rangers are among the highest-strikeout lineups in the league (25.2%) against left-handed pitchers this year. Kent has something resembling a full leash, as well. There is obvious downside with a guy making his 2nd start at the top level, but there’s obvious downside with every other pitcher on this slate, too. At least he’s $6,800.
The last name I’ll mention is Jack Perkins, who takes the mound in KC against the Royals. Perkins still looks like a solid source of strikeouts (25%), and his 3.77 SIERA makes his atrocious 7.27 ERA look like quite the anomaly. Kansas City has one of the slate’s highest totals, but this still just isn’t a particularly good offense (.159 ISO, .314 wOBA), even with Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino back. I kinda believe in Perkins’ talent, and I have to think his ERA is due for some regression (the good kind!) moving forward. I don’t mind a dart throw here.
SP Rankings
- Suarez
- Gausman
- Harrison
- Kent
- Quantrill
- Perkins
- Javier
- Miller
- Ray
Best MLB DFS Stacks for 8/18
- Dodgers (at Ryan Feltner)
- Rockies (vs. Eric Lauer)
- A’s (at Daniel Lynch IV)
- Brewers (vs. Bryce Miller)
- Mets (vs. Robbie Ray)
- Rangers (vs. Jackson Kent)
- Astros (vs. George Klassen)
- Angels (at Cristian Javier)
- Padres (at Zach Thornton)
- Red Sox (vs. Merrill Kelly)
- Cubs (vs. Erick Fedde)
- Royals (vs. Jack Perkins)
As expected, lots of bats look pretty good tonight. The Dodgers are your obvious standouts against Ryan Feltner in Colorado. Feltner’s numbers across the board are similar against hitters from both sides. He’s throwing more strikes to righties, and those strikes are, generally, getting blasted. Really isn’t much more to say here. Maybe Kyle Tucker will accidentally get on base.
The Rockies predictably didn’t do much against Blake Snell last night, but tonight they’ll face a weaker lefty in Eric Lauer. Lauer has admittedly been better since joining the Dodgers, while the Rockies (.160 ISO, .328 wOBA) just don’t profile well at all vs. LHP. Jake McCarthy, Jordan Beck, and Cole Carrigg have decent individual numbers, while perhaps tonight’s the night Hunter Goodman returns to the lineup. I’m not excited about the Rockies, but they’re not a bad play here.
The Astros have a high total against RHP George Klassen. Klassen has had major control trouble so far, though he does have a groundball rate well north of 50%, as well. This guy is not at all equipped to handle Yordan Alvarez, who looks similar to Ohtani and will come at a fraction of his ownership. Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes, Yainer Diaz, and Christian Walker look good here, as well.
I probably won’t have a ton of exposure to the Angels, but I do think Cristian Javier is likely bad semi-chalk against them, so they’re on the radar a little. Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Wade “The Meck” Meckler, and Moises Ballesteros would be my priorities.
Both offenses in the ATH/KC game look playable. Perkins has allowed a .208 ISO to hitters from both sides, and the Royals’ lineup is closer to full strength these days. Bobby Witt Jr., Jac Caglianone, and Carter Jensen are always the headliners, but no issues with Maikel Garcia, Isaac Collins, or Kyle Isbel, either. Daniel Lynch IV is more of a long opener than a traditional starter, though you can hunt righty power against him. Zack Gelof, Henry Bolte, Jonah Heim look the best.
The Cubs will face LHP Bryan Hudson to start the game, though Erick Fedde is likely to pitch in bulk relief. Fedde has been consistently horrible all year, though he’s allowed far more power to RHBs. I’m still starting any stack with Pete Crow-Armstrong, obviously, followed by Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, and Alex Bregman.
Robbie Ray ain’t Robbie Ray anymore. At this point, he’s just a guy who walks too many and still allows power to right-handed hitters. Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette, and Luis Robert is a nice mini-stack. Don’t mind Francisco Alvarez or Marcus Semien here, either.
The Padres are playable against rookie LHP Zach Thornton on the other side. A Fernando Tatis Jr./Manny Machado/Ty France mini-stack is solid.
The Red Sox draw Merrill Kelly, a man who is washed. Lefties (.246 ISO, .381 wOBA) have really done a number on him. Good spot for Wilyer Abreu, Nick Sogard, Adley Rutschman, and Jarren Duran from the left side, but it’s not like Kelly is dominating RHBs, either.
I don’t mind Kent, but Texas (.184 ISO) has hit for some power against lefties. Wyatt Langford, Jake Burger, and Justin Foscue have decent numbers vs. LHP.
I don’t mind the Brewers, either, against the scuffling Bryce Miller. Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio, and Joey Ortiz. Jonathan Ornelas is a good value if he cracks the lineup.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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