NBA DFS has been a bit of a nightmare the last couple of slates, as blowouts, ejections, and injuries have been rather annoying. The logic was sound with playing 76ers and Grizzlies, but Philly once again laid an egg last night.
You still could have placed with our NBA core, but Clingan getting ejected sure didn’t help. It’s onward and upward, as Thursday offers a fun 6-game main slate at DraftKings. I’ll go over the entire slate, singling out the top NBA DFS picks we need to build lineups around, while also touching on some GPP options (I hit Keyonte last night!), the best game environments, and the top studs worth spending up for.
NBA DFS Core Plays for 3/5
- Isaiah Collier ($7.8k)
- Kel’el Ware ($4.9k)
- Julian Reese ($3.7k)
Update: Poeltl and Bam are 2 more great center plays. The value is terrible tonight. Reese is shaky but he’s still cheap and starting. Against Utah I’m down for the dice roll. If you’re not into it, there’s the 2 guys I just mentioned or Wemby up top. For other value, we can still play Riley, but he’s coming off the bench. ANT is an awesome pivot away from chalky Banchero. Wemby/Cade are fine, but I don’t think I’ll be getting to either all that much.
Update: Still waiting on a bunch of news. Love Bam. Making Ware a priority over him for now. Collier’s projection and matchup look too good. Still risky, but with Keyonte out he’s a difficult fade right now.
Non-Bam Heat are popping like crazy. I think guys like Herro, Wiggins, and Ware are good plays, but Bam is just better. He smashed against the Nets last time and he’s the guy that grades out the best here. If he’s going to actually go overlooked, I’ll plant my flag there.
I do really like Ware here, but playing him into ownership does feel dicey. I may still work him into the core depending on what opens up, as the value is presently pretty poor.
It’s so poor, in fact, that I have WCJ and Will freaking Riley in my NBA DFS Core Plays at the moment. They do still project well, as Carter Jr. could return to a solid role and a date with a bad Mavs team.
WCJ is totally fine, but I’d be happy to get away from him. It could also be Julian Reese Szn, provided Anthony Gill is out. I know we’re all excited for that.
Trae Young is making his Wizards debut, so pretty much every Washington player not named Will Riley is out of play. I don’t even want to play Riley, but he looks good in terms of minutes, price, and projection.
I’ll be very eager to move away from WCJ and Riley. It’s early, so we’ll see what else opens up.
Thursday’s NBA DFS GPP Picks
- Anthony Edwards ($9.7k)
- Michael Porter Jr. ($8.1k)
ANT is actually questionable, but that seems to always be the case. Obviously don’t play him if he’s out, but if he’s in he won’t be owned. Suboptimal spot and a Q tag don’t mix well, but unowned ANT to hammer the slate sounds fun to me.
MPJ is a nice unowned comeback to our Heat interest. He’s risky, but the usage and pace make for a pretty fun play at low ownership.
Scottie Barnes and Jalen Duren are two other slate-breaky guys that don’t appear to be trending towards chalky that I’d work into my lineups more than the field.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments
- Jazz vs. Wizards (243.5 total)
- Nets vs. Heat (226.5 total)
- Pistons vs. Spurs (228.5 total)
The first game is going to be fast with no defense. The issue is we can’t trust any of these sacks to play more than 30 minutes. I do think anyone who does feel reliable is going to look great, so the likes of Riley, Collier, Bailey, and perhaps Reese get a boost just due to the spot they’re in.
Brooklyn has an opportunity to make this second game the game of the night. Miami plays fast, so there is a very real ceiling to tap into. The field wants to play the Heat. If you cave, consider being aggressive with Nets guys from the other side. MPJ is the first one I’d target, but values like Clowney, Wolf, and Traore are all totally fine. The game simply needs to stay competitive.
Detroit vs. San Antonio doesn’t feel like a game that should be a great DFS environment. It honestly might be a total trap. Still, it has a high 228.5 total and a tight 4-point spread. IN THEORY this could be a very stackable spot. I tend to lean more towards this being a bit of a trap, but then again I’m starting to fall in love with Nets over here.
Top NBA DFS Studs to Pay For on Thursday
- Cade ($11.2k)
- Wemby ($10.9k)
- Banchero ($9.6k)
- ANT ($9.7k)
- KD ($9.1k)
Cade is the guy with the best projection, but his matchup isn’t amazing. Wemby’s matchup isn’t much better, but he’s cheaper than Cade and projects about as well. Both look like fine raw point spends, but I’m not entirely sold they’re super necessary – especially since the value on this slate is “meh”.
Wemby is my pick between the two, especially if he’s going to be lower owned.
Banchero is definitely the best value up top. He is $1.3k cheaper than both of those dudes and is not that far from them in terms of projection. His ceiling takes a hit with Black back and his game having real blowout risk. He might just be The Play, but I never feel good about owned Banchero.
If Banchero is the chalk stud, give me Cade/Wemby at a worse price all day. I’d also just pivot to an unowned ANT. Edwards is in a weak spot and has a worse projection, but he’s basically the same price and with a Q tag added to the pile, I can’t imagine he gets ownership.
Sengun is fine if he’s in and KD would still be playable in that situation. But where it would get really interesting is if Sengun sits. KD would then instantly become the top spend of the slate.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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