Good afternoon! It’s morning where I am, but it seems like most people are not where I (Noah Simpson) am, so you’re probably reading this in the afternoon. Who knows, maybe it’ll be afternoon here when I’m done with it. Decent chance of that, I’m afraid.
Last night’s slate was a decent one – Mariners! – but we’re on to bigger and better things tonight. We’ve got some aces on tonight’s main slate, so that’s a nice change of pace, but, as we know, Aces Love To Pitch Like Shit, so proceed with caution.
Let’s talk about the bases and the balls.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Wednesday
- Chris Sale ($10,500, at Mets)
- Cam Schlittler ($10,800, at White Sox)
- Joe Ryan ($10,300, vs. Royals)
- Christian Scott ($7,000, vs. Braves)
- Dustin May ($7,500, vs. Cubs)
- Joey Cantillo ($8,000, at Reds)
- Brady Singer ($6,000, vs. Guardians)
- Hayden Wesneski ($7,200, at Angels)
Chris Sale is generally about as safe as it gets, but there’s no such thing as safety in MLB DFS. His 29.6% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate, and 2.19 ERA are all outstanding, though his xERA is about a full run higher. His strand rate is 82%, which is about 10% higher than league average, but it’s also the third year in a row he’s been hovering around 80%, so maybe he’s just got that Clutch Gene.
Sale gets a solid matchup with the Mets, still missing Juan Soto. What’s left isn’t a bad offense (.329 wOBA, .177 ISO, 20% Ks), but I’m also not really scared of anyone here. The matchup is better than Cam Schlittler’s and he’s $300 cheaper, so I assume he’ll be the chalkier of the two. Fine with that.
Schlittler has also checked all the boxes, of course. His 30.5% Ks and 4.9% walks are in line with Sale’s numbers. His xERA (2.96) is also quite a bit higher than his real one (2.07), thanks, in part, to a strand rate (81.5%) also similar to Sale’s. Schlittler will face Sale’s former team, the White Sox. Chicago has pounded right-handed pitching all year (.187 ISO, .336 wOBA, 22.3% Ks), but, obviously, they haven’t faced pitchers as good as Schlittler in most of those games.
It’ll cost you, but pairing the top two aces is doable on this slate, and I don’t mind it. I’d rather play Sale if choosing between them, but the field probably agrees.
Joe Ryan got absolutely destroyed in his most recent start – by the Guardians, of all teams – and he’s generally been in shaky form of late. I don’t see anything red flaggy under the hood (27.8% Ks, 5.3% walks, 3.32 SIERA), though his barrel rate is up over 11% for the 2nd season in a row. Ryan gets the same Royals team Taj Bradley mowed through last night. They’re a little more strikeout-prone than the Mets (22.6%) with similar batted ball numbers. Facing 6 lefties isn’t ideal for Ryan, but Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone are the only LHBs hitting for much power. $10,300 is on the high side here, but I’d play him over Schlittler, as well.
If there’s a huge ownership discount with Schlittler, you can certainly make the case to simply play him ahead of Sale or Ryan. I assume the Sale + Ryan combo will be chalkier. There really isn’t much separating these guys. The field is now aware that the White Sox are good, so Schlittler should be the lowest-owned of the trio at the most expensive salary. That’s not to say I think he’ll be contrarian, though.
Nobody else feels great once you get beyond the aces, but there are still some interesting options. Christian Scott toes the rubber opposite Sale in Game 2 of the double-dip. This child has a high strikeout rate (28.8%) – which jives considering he’s one of the Mets’ top prospects – but walks (10.7%) hvae also been his undoing. That also jives, as young pitchers tend to be erratic. Scott still has a sub-3.80 SIERA even with all those walks. The Braves (.189 ISO, .338 wOBA, 21.5% Ks) are a pretty neutral matchup. The top half of the lineup has a lot of power, the bottom half does not. Because it’s also the latter half of a doubleheader, maybe a few of the regulars get the night off and we get a semi watered-down lineup. The headline is that Scott is a solid pitcher and $7,000 is likely an underpay, even in a subpar matchup.
Hayden Wesneski will make his season debut after undergoing Tommy John last year. Obviously, that alone creates plenty of uncertainty. He’s been rehabbing at the lower levels, so 80ish pitches tonight against the Angels seems reasonable. This guy has a career 23% K-rate in the majors along with a 3.93 SIERA. There’s nothing special about any of this, but he’s a right-hander facing the Angels and their 25% K-rate vs. right-handed pitching. Plus, Wesneski’s only $7,200. He has a career strikeout rate near 26% with a sub-.300 wOBA allowed vs. right-handed hitters, which are useful skills for the matchup. I like him a good amount, and I don’t mind playing him in any format, even with the pitch count risk.
The volatile Dustin May is also on the mound tonight for a home date against the Cubs. Chicago has absolutely murdered the Cardinals’ starters so far in this series, which doesn’t really matter, but I decided to say it anyway. May is a wild card, of course. One day he’s dominating the league’s best lineups, the next he’s nearly dying after eating a salad. Over the last month, he has a 26.3% strikeout rate to go along with an 11.1% walk rate, which sums things up pretty well. He has done a great job of dodging barrels (1.7%) and limiting power (.048 ISO), so maybe we can thank his time with the Dodgers for that.
The Cubs don’t have great numbers overall against RHP (.168 ISO, .329 wOBA), but they are quite patient, which could be problematic. I’d play Wesneski and Scott before I’d play May in this range, but that doesn’t mean I’ll fade him entirely.
Brady Singer is just $6,000 for a home matchup against the Guardians. Singer was a horror show to begin the year, but he’s bounced back nicely ever since. Over the last month the K-rate is back up near 23%, and he’s stopped getting blasted. His groundball rate is up at 58% vs. his fellow righties, while he’s found more Ks (23.4%) vs. LHBs. Cleveland is getting a park upgrade here, but it’s not a scary offense overall (.146 ISO, .308 wOBA vs. RHP). There is a chance the Guardians even get some ownership on this slate, but I think I’d rather be on the Singer side, especially at his super-cheap salary. Feels bad.
Joey Cantillo checks in on the other side of that one for $2,000 more than Singer. He’s been a mix of Ks (24.3%) and walks (11.1%), but he hasn’t allowed a ton of power (.156 ISO). The Reds are one of baseball’s most powerful offenses against southpaws (.216 ISO, .345 wOBA), but they’re also quite strikeout-prone (25.9%). I don’t mind rolling the dice on Cantillo in this one, but I like a Reds stack just as much against him.
SP Rankings
- Sale
- Ryan
- Schlittler
- Scott
- Wesneski
- Singer
- Cantillo
- May
Best MLB DFS Stacks for July 29
- Red Sox (at Jacob Lopez)
- A’s (vs. Patrick Sandoval)
- Astros (at Grayson Rodriguez)
- Mariners (at Eric Lauer)
- Dodgers (vs. Emerson Hancock)
- Angels (vs. Hayden Wesneski)
- Guardians (at Brady Singer)
- Reds (vs. Joey Cantillo)
Here we go again with the Red Sox and A’s. This series has been a total dud so far, but, again, what happened yesterday has no bearing on today. Jacob Lopez has been a tire fire this season for the A’s, with a walk rate (13.2%) nearly as high as his strikeout rate (17.5%), which is Not What You Want. He’s also allowing consistent power (.214 ISO, .377 wOBA) to right-handed bats.
I will note that Lopez more recently has looked more like the decent pitcher we saw last season, so maybe he’s figured it out. I still think Boston is a viable stack, especially given how well the lineup profiles against left-handed pitching (.216 ISO, .358 wOBA). Willson Contreras, Romy Gonzalez, Ceddane Rafaela, and Andruw Monasterio have particularly impressive numbers vs. LHP on the year. Ditto for Wilyer Abreu lefty-lefty. I don’t mind mini-stacking Boston into what should be heavy ownership if you’re wary of the full stack.
The A’s really aren’t a good offense these days, especially without Shea Langeliers. That doesn’t mean they’re a fade, though, as Patrick Sandoval has had some issues since joining the Boston rotation. I wouldn’t put too much stock in his splits considering he’s only faced 13 LHBs all year, but they have blasted him. I’d still prioritize the righties against the lefty, though. I suppose that means Jonah Heim, Tommy White, Colby Thomas, Henry Bolte, and Jacob Wilson, but hey, most of those guys are bad. Nick Kurtz is always great in any matchup. I’m not enthusiastic about the A’s, but I kinda doubt the field will be, either, which makes them interesting if they’re low-owned.
Grayson Rodriguez was once the best pitching prospect in baseball, but he’s a must-attack pitcher right now as he continues to find his way back from injury. He is horrendous, especially against lefties (.300 ISO, .488 wOBA). They should walk Yordan Alvarez 5 times in this game, but they won’t, which makes him the slate’s top overall hitter. Righties (.235 ISO, .335 wOBA) have still done plenty of damage, so I’m happy to play Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, and Isaac Paredes here, as well.
I suppose the Angels are viable here against the relative unknown that is Wesneski, but I don’t love it given his aforementioned prowess against right-handed bats. You’re playing the usuals if you’re stacking this team, but they’re much better as a mini-stack.
The Mariners smacked 5 dongs last night at no ownership. I assume they’ll be a little more popular tonight against Eric Lauer, but I still doubt they’ll garner a ton of attention. Lauer has been better since donning a Dodger uniform and absorbing their magical fairy dust, but over the last month he still only has a 7.7% strikeout rate with a .277 ISO and .404 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters. That’s bad. It’s all bad. Right back to the well here with Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Rob Refsnyder, and Randy Arozarena, while I don’t mind Cole Young or Dom Canzone lefty-lefty to round things out.
Emerson Hancock is better than Luis Castillo, so the Dodgers aren’t quite as clear-cut as they were in last night’s matchup. Hancock really hasn’t taken much damage all year, but he’s living off BABIP. It’s easy enough to get to Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, and Tommy Edman if you’re not paying up for 2 aces.
Both pitchers in Reds-Guardians are playable, but both offenses are stackable, too. I’d still rather target righty power against Cantillo – Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, Dane Myers, Eugenio Suarez, and Noelvi Marte have the best numbers vs. LHP here.
With Cleveland, you’re just hoping Singer turns back into a pumpkin. I generally like this team against crappy righties, so I guess I have to stick with the bit. Jose Ramirez, Travis Bazzana, Angel Martinez, Chase DeLauter, and Kyle Manzardo look pretty good.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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