It’s a random Wednesday in October. Basketball hasn’t started yet and we’re a day away from Thursday Night Football. NHL DFS is the best thing to play tonight, but we’ve also got the MLB posteason rolling on with Game 3 between the Blue Jays and Mariners.
The scene shifts to Seattle with the Mariners already up 2-0 in the series. Few could’ve seen this coming after the way both ALDS matchups played out, but here we are. George Kirby will get the ball for the home team, while Shane Bieber will try to get the Jays back into the series.
MLB DFS is inherently volatile, and MLB showdown is about as unpredictable as it gets. Regardless, there’s money to be won. Below I’ll offer a few strategy takes for the showdown slate.
Captain an SP?
Pitcher projections are generally more trustworthy. We know T-Mobile is a very pitcher-friendly park. Even with a couple of elite, deep offenses in this game, it’s safe to assume George Kirby will be the chalkiest option in the multiplier spot.
Kirby was very solid this season, with a career-best 26.6% strikeout rate to go along with the usual low walks and power prevention. The issue is the Jays aren’t a high-strikeout offense (16.7% vs. RHP), though I do expect the Mariners to give him a pretty full leash with a 2-game lead in the series.
If you are playing the Kirby chalk in CPT – which is very viable – you’ll have to get different with the rest of your build. The field is still likely to play Kirby in CPT with some of the Toronto hitters, which seems like a mistake. You’re not allowed to roster 6 guys from one team, but in Kirby CPT builds, it obviously makes sense to limit your exposure to the hitters he’s facing. I’d be playing Kirby with 4 Seattle hitters as much as possible.
I suppose Shane Bieber can be your Toronto bring-back, but that won’t be sneaky build for large-field GPPs, either. A more interesting approach is to run it back with one of the Blue Jays’ relievers – namely Braydon Fisher, Brendon Little, or Yariel Rodriguez. These aren’t the Jays’ high-leverage relief arms, which makes sense. If Kirby proves worthwhile in the CPT spot and your Mariner bats come through, Toronto is likely to be playing from behind. That makes it more likely they’ll once again resort to their lower-leverage relief pitchers later in the game.
I think it also makes sense to pair Kirby CPT with a high-leverage Seattle reliever. Andres Munoz, Gabe Speier, and Eduard Bazardo are the primary options. If Kirby pitches well and the Mariners are nursing a late lead, these guys are likely to get into the game.
I’d be employing the same strategy in Bieber CPT lineups – stacking him with 4 Blue Jays bats along with a Seattle reliever. Carlos Vargas and Gabe Speier are the standouts in this regard. Just note Bieber is likely to have a tighter leash than Kirby with this essentially being a must-win for Toronto.
Overload Stacks with Hitter CPT
I think most lineups that don’t have Kirby or Bieber in the CPT spot will be a bit more unique, but I’d still shy away from a 3-3 stack. As of this writing, the highest-ROI builds are overload 5-1 stacks, and I think that makes sense. If one team goes off offensively, you’ll want as much exposure to those points as you can possibly get.
Playing a 3-3 or a 4-2 stack is essentially betting on a close game. A close game is more likely than not considering it’s a postseason game in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but there’s less of an edge in playing for median outcomes. I think the path to winning a tournament with a unique lineup is by stacking 5 guys with a single bringback from the other side. If I am playing a 3-3 or a 4-2, I’m interested in leaving salary on the table, as these kinds of stacks using most of the salary cap are pretty likely to be duplicated.
Seattle is favored in this game and they’ve been the better team in the series. They’re also facing the more vulnerable pitching staff, so Mariner hitters are likely to see a bit more ownership than the Jays. That means a 5-1 Toronto-heavy stack is going to be a very unique construction. Let’s not forget this is baseball, and few would’ve expected the Mariners to go into Toronto and steal Games 1 and 2. Even without “momentum,” who’s to say the Blue Jays can’t go into Seattle and pull a similar stunt?
In a 5-1 Toronto stack, you’re certainly fading Kirby. If the 5-1 Blue Jays stack gets there, it’s pretty likely that Kirby fails. The same is true of the 5-1 Seattle-heavy stack. I like a 5-1 Toronto stack with Daulton Varsho in the CPT spot, as he was the Jays’ most potent hitter in the power department against righties (.364 ISO, .363 wOBA).
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