Hello. It is Monday. It is also Almost August, but it’s not August yet. Feels like August already, though.
We went to see a movie yesterday. Because The Odyssey only had front-row seats available for IMAX, we saw The Invite, which I did not know was still in theaters. I didn’t hear much about this movie at all, but it was legitimately excellent? I recommend it. I do not recommend watching it with your mom, though. I didn’t do that either, but the guy next to us was watching with his mom, and they walked right outta that shit after about 30 minutes.
FanDuel added a bunch of games around 6:40 to its main slate, yet DraftKings did not. For once, FanDuel did something better than DraftKings. DK’s is a 7-gamer starting at 7:10 ET, and this is one of those slates where you’re not gonna feel good about anything on the pitching side. Fun!
Let us discuss.
Best MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Monday
- Chase Burns ($11,300, vs. Guardians)
- Tatsuya Imai ($6,800, at Angels)
- Tyler Mahle ($7,100, vs. Brewers)
- Max Fried ($8,600, at White Sox)
- Payton Tolle ($8,800, at A’s)
- Jack Perkins ($6,500, vs. Red Sox)
- Brandon Sproat ($7,300, at Giants)
- Matthew Liberatore ($6,700, vs. Cubs)
We had almost a carbon copy of this pitching slate last week. Chase Burns was alone at the top as the best pitcher on the slate, but also the priciest by a huge margin. Tonight, he returns home to his hitter-friendly home digs to face the Guardians. Burns is great (28.6% Ks, 9% walks, 3.59 SIERA), though he does have some wonky control and power issues against lefties, and the Guardians are basically Nothing But Lefties. Austin Hedges is the only right-handed bat in the projected order tonight.
I assume Burns will be fine, but will fine justify an $11,300 salary? Cleveland is also back to being a low-strikeout lot (18.1% vs. RHP), and they’re more imposing now that Jose Ramirez and Angel Martinez are both back healthy. I will have exposure to Burns by default because I will play a lot of lineups, but this isn’t a situation where I’ll be playing him in 50%-75% of my stuff. Probably closer to 25%. I suppose I should note that I just looked up the weather report and this game is potentially dicey, so there’s a decent chance we won’t even be able to play Burns.
After that, I guess we can talk about Tatsuya Imai, who should be a popular SP2 to pair with Burns at a mere $6,800 for a road matchup against the Angels. Imai’s strikeout rate (27.5%) is impressive, but equally impressive is his walk rate (14%)…(derogatory).
Imai’s 5.59 ERA is a direct result of that cartoonish walk rate, though his 4.87 xERA is a little better. I guess. We always pick on the Angels, though, because the Angels are bad (.162 ISO, .308 wOBA vs. RHP) and they’re high-strikeout (25.1%). The first few hitters in the order are patient enough to give Imai trouble, but there’s a very clear lack of patience 5-through-9. The highest walk rate of that bunch belongs to Logan O’Hoppe at a middling 6.6%. Those guys are up there hackin’. And, usually, missin’.
I get it with Imai, for sure. He’s $6,800, and there’s a clear path to paying that off rather easily. This is also just the kinda guy you don’t really want to be playing at a heavy clip if the field is doing the same. Robbie Ray, Blake Snell, things of that nature. The salary makes it tough to fade him, so I will have an unhealthy amount of Imai. I question whether he is a human walking among us considering his name is “I m AI,” but that’s irrelevant.
If you’re doing anything other than pairing Burns with Mr. AI, I assume you will be fairly different. Tyler Mahle and Brandon Sproat are both on my radar, squaring off against each other in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Tyler Mahle used to be good. Brandon Sproat may be good in the future. The problem is neither of them is particularly good now, which is when we actually need them to be.
Mahle’s xERA (4.30) is about a run lower than his ERA, so he’s run into some bad luck. The strikeout stuff he used to have is largely gone (21.4%), though he has shown some Ks against lefties (25.3%). Milwaukee is a tricky matchup with their Sea of Lefties, but they’re also quietly striking out (23.6%) a decent amount against RHP. Mahle is $7,100 and I like the ballpark, so I think he’s a fine alternative to Imai for $300 more at lower ownership.
Sproat has been quite erratic, though there is also some strikeout stuff here (24.3%). The problem is he also walks way too many guys (11.5%), while righties (10.4% barrels) have hit him pretty hard. The Giants aren’t even a bad offense these days (.186 ISO, .337 wOBA, 19.2% Ks vs. RHP). There’s no telling what we’re going to get from this lad on a night-to-night basis. I think he’s playable because there’s just nothing else on this slate that really stands out, but I kinda fall more on the SF side of this one.
In terms of talent, Payton Tolle is up there with Max Fried and Burns as the best on the slate. He’s another guy whose xERA (2.94) beats his actual one (3.31), though it’s not like a 3.31 ERA is bad at all. Decent strikeout ability (26.2%) along with better control than just about ever other pitcher on this slate. The downside here is he’s taking the mound in Sacramento, where it’s Fucking Hot.
The A’s just got Nick Kurtz back, but they also lost Shea Langeliers for the season. What’s left is a lineup with some power (.173 ISO vs. LHP), but they’ll also do some strikin’ out (23.6%). I like Tolle by default, even at $8,800 in a negative pitching context, but this is another one I’ll be playing both sides of. Ending a sentence with a preposition, for shame. Sentence fragment, too. There’s another one. And another one. Oh dear.
Max Fried pitched last week after coming off the IL. He only threw 57 pitches, yet made the most of those 57 pitches, as he managed to strike out 7 Pirates in 5 ultra-efficient innings. Fried will obviously be limited again tonight on the road in Chicago. I think 75 pitches is a reasonable expectation. 75 pitches of Max Fried – who is generally an average strikeout pitcher who keeps the ball on the ground – doesn’t sound great at $8,600 given the tough matchup, but again, nothing feels great. The White Sox are another team with a mix of power (.192 ISO) and Ks (23.6%) against southpaws. I’d rather play Tolle because I think the extra $200 is worth the higher ceiling, but both are high-risk options. Fried’s short leash is the tiebreaker.
I suppose the other pitcher in Sacramento is playable. Jack Perkins is only $6,500 and facing Boston. The Red Sox have improved offensively as the season has progressed, though Perkins (26.7%) has shown some strikeout skills. He’s also $300 cheaper than Imai, and a pretty obvious route to leverage against what should be a chalky Sox offense. I think I’d just rather play Boston, but it’s fine.
Matthew Liberatore against the Cubs? There’s nothing inspiring here (21.6% Ks, 8.6% walks, 9.3% barrels), while the Cubs are generally a more favorable matchup for a lefty, like Libby. He’s $6,700 and kinda popping a bit in our MLB DFS sims, for whatever it’s worth.
SP Rankings
- Uhh…Burns, I guess?
- Imai?
- Tolle
- Mahle
- Liberatore
- Perkins
- Sproat
- Fried
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Monday
- Red Sox (at Perkins)
- Reds (vs. Slade Cecconi)
- Cardinals (vs. David Peterson)
- Astros (at Walbert Urena)
- Yankees (at Noah Schultz)
- A’s (vs. Tolle)
- Mets (vs. Martin Perez)
- Giants (vs. Sproat)
- Angels (vs. Imai)
I assume the game in Sacramento will be popular, especially the Boston side. Perkinshas allowed a lot of power (.183 ISO), especially to his fellow righties (.213). I’m still not really impressed with the Red Sox, even after a recent 80-game winning streak, but it is a good spot. Willson Contreras has been outstanding this year, while I’ll trust the long-term skill sets for Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu next. Anthony Seigler has hit well since he showed up, while Ceddane Rafaela is a nice power/speed combo. Even Caleb Durbin has come around after a shitty start to the campaign. If it’s the chalk, I don’t think it’s great chalk at all, but I get it.
The A’s should be lower-owned on the other side of this one, and I like them, even against a capable lefty. I assume Nick Kurtz won’t attract a ton of lefty-lefty ownership, so that’s cool. Ditto for Tyler Soderstrom, even though both have hit for power in same-handed matchups. Jacob Wilson, Tommy White, Colby Thomas, and Jonah Heim look viable in stacks.
Slade Cecconi has allowed a lot of power (.214 ISO) over the past month without notable splits. We typically prefer the Reds against left-handers, but the top 5 in the order (Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, JJ Bleday, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Stephenson) have solid numbers vs. RHP, as well. Decent chance this game gets whacked, but if it doesn’t, it’s a very good spot in a homer-friendly ballpark.
The Mets just lost Juan Soto again, so that sucks, but it also makes the stack more affordable on aggregate. Martin Perez has morphed back into a pumpkin over the last month, with a walk rate (15.3%) nearly double his K-rate (8.5%). He’s also allowed a .200 ISO. I can’t say I love the Mets, but Bo Bichette, Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert, and Francisco Alvarez are talented hitters with power. Tyrone Taylor and Eric Wagaman have good numbers in smaller samples this year.
The Yankees face a wild, power-prone lefty of their own in Noah Schultz. Schultz has been worse overall against righties. The Judge-less Yankees aren’t the most impressive lineup against LHP, but Paul Goldschmidt, Ben Rice, Jasson Dominguez, Amed Rosario, and Max Schuemann (??) have fared well enough.
Both offenses in the Houston-Anaheim game are viable. Walbert Urena is a decent pitcher and tough to stack against thanks to his groundball lean. He hasn’t allowed much power at all, but it’s a park upgrade for the Astros, and they’ve been a capable offense all year. If you want to just one-off Yordan Alvarez that’s Totally Fine, but I’d surround him in a mini-stack with Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes, and/or Christian Walker.
The Angels are a clear leverage play against Imai. Things will go south quickly if his control isn’t there, and his control is rarely there. Lefties have had much more success against him. Not great for the righty-heavy Angels, but you can just play the good ones – Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Jo Adell.
Playing offenses in San Francisco at night rarely seems to go well, but Sproat is pretty meltdown-prone. I’m still starting with Rafael Devers or Bryce Eldridge from the left side, but I’m good with Willy Adames, Casey Schmitt, and Heliot Ramos against a guy allowing a 10.4% barrel rate and .218 ISO vs. RHB on the year.
David Peterson was excellent in his last start, but he has rarely been excellent all season between New York and Chicago. The Cardinals have also rarely been excellent against LHP, but Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera, and Masyn Winn is a mini-stack I like a decent bit.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
Want more winning DFS plays like this? Get our daily core plays, leverage spots, and strategy sent straight to your inbox.
Leave a Reply